AUD in Focus February 2012

8 Feb 12

AUD/USD

AUD/USD gained an impressive +3.7% in January in the absence of a rate decision by the RBA, as Australia reported better economic data on balance and gold prices rose. In addition to the Australian economy showing improvement in January, economic data out of the United States also gained ground overall.

After dipping initially to the 1.0145 level in early January, the Aussie rose sharply during the rest of the month and into early February to trade as high as the 1.0794 level on Feb 2^nd. The rate has since corrected slightly to the 1.0710 but seems well supported at these high levels.

AUD/EUR

AUD/EUR extended the previous month’s gains to set yet another new post-float high, rising by +3.4% for the month overall. The Australian Dollar keeps gaining strength against the Euro as the European financial crisis drags on, commodity prices rise, and Australia’s economy continues outperforming the Eurozone’s.

AUD/EUR staged an impressive rally throughout December and into mid-January, before consolidating and then rising again in early February to hit fresh long term highs. The cross has thus far gone up as far as 0.8217 on Feb 2^nd, and it now seems likely to rise further still over the coming month, although a consolidation or correction period may subsequently occur.

GBP/AUD

GBP/AUD continued losing ground in January, dropping by -3.0% as Sterling continues being weighed down by events in Europe. Despite maintaining its distance from the European financial crisis, UK banks hold a heavy load of European sovereign debt and have a large amount of exposure to the seemingly never-ending European financial crisis. Rising gold prices supported the Aussie.

After GBP/AUD bounced sharply in early December, to hit a high point of 1.5678 by Dec 18^th, the cross sold off again to fall as low as the 1.4711 level by Jan 16^th. A subsequent consolidation period then led to yet another drop to the 1.4649 level on Feb 2^nd.

For a full report please see the attached document.

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